Note: The "Peak Of Production Of Conventional Oil"

may have already taken place. See:

http://www.taxrefusal.com/oiltable.html

COMING OIL CRISIS // FACT & FIGHT SHEET
by
Daniel J. Lavigne, Founder 
International Humanity House

Serious Concerns Facing Humanity Within Ten Years Due To
The Anticipated (2007) Peak Of Conventional Oil Production

Oil extraction will, by 2008, start to diminish by 3% per year; that
growing lack of oil, compounded by a present 2% yearly increase
in demand, will lead to the collapse of all oil based economies.
The duration of the decline is FOREVER.  See address by
Dr. Campbell to British House of Commons 07/07/99 at:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm

Most Significant Effects

Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for food production, food delivery and all industrial machinery. Restrictions on agriculture (modern food production depends heavily on fertilisers made from oil) will lead to a need for the
majority to supplement whatever food they may be able to purchase.

Alternative Fuels Have Been Studied

As replacements for oil they are grossly inadequate.

In quantity and versatility of use, "alternative fuels" will
not be able to supply the energy needed to grow our food.

And they certainly will not permit us to continue our
current belief that "Sustainable Growth" is possible.

Worse, we have "Run Out Of Time",
and will not be able to prevent
seriously adverse impacts.

When And How Bad Will The Crisis Be?

Signs are now evident that oil recovery may have already peaked
as predicted by M. King Hubbert in 1956. Some believe that the peak
will be evident by 2005. See International Energy Agency tables at:

http://208.240.253.224/campbell.htm

[From Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, at end of 1999.]
Each has worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years.

The Confirming Figures Supplied by  E.I.A. can be found at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/

Colin Campbell is completing his Ph.D. in geology at the University
of Oxford; he worked for Texaco as an exploration geologist and then at
Amoco as chief geologist for Ecuador. His decade-long study of global
oil-production trends has led to two books and numerous papers. He
also worked on behalf of Petroconsultants of Geneva, a consultancy
whose database is the most comprehensive available for data on oil
resources that exist outside of continental North America.
It is used as a 'bible' by international oil companies. 

Laherrère's early work on seismic refraction surveys contributed
to the discovery of Africa's largest oil field. At Total, a French oil
company, he supervised  exploration techniques worldwide.

“Invest More Money To Find More Oil!”

No amount of money will create oil that simply isn't there. After a
century of exploration, the earth's geology and oil resources are
generally well known. When the fields are emptying, money
only helps to scrape out the hard-to-reach remainder.

There are approximately 210 billion barrels left to discover
and approximately 1000 billion barrels left to extract. This
is indicated by the 40 year decline in discovery of oil. See:

http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/04discoverandprodn.html

"Technology will solve our problem!"

Challenge to technology: By 2005/2008, create & install a supply
of portable energy, equivalent to 660 million barrels of oil a
year, increasing that much every year, or manage to reduce
energy demand by an equivalent amount each and every year.

The madness of greed,
as it exists and infects us,
denies us such a resolution.

Solar and wind power possibilities

Global solar use: 
Presently about 0.006% of global energy supply. 

Global wind power use: 
About 0.07% of 1990 global energy supply. 

Using some of the remaining oil as fuel for manufacturing solar & wind
equipment would be a wiser investment than using it “NOW” in order
that to-day’s vehicle manufacturers be able to profit from desires by
some to drive to their corner store and buy a six-pack and a pizza
without exercising their right to trim the flab from their bodies.

The *End Of Oil* Will Affect Everyone

Food production & delivery depends on oil. 

Food grains now contain between 4 and 10 calories
of fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of solar energy. 

Four percent of US energy budget is used to grow food.

Ten to thirteen percent of it is used to put food on our plates.

Oil shortages will make production increasingly expensive.

Moving food production closer to city consumers will be vital.

Percentage of US grain used to feed cattle: 

70% of all of America’s grains are used to feed cattle with
a very poor efficiency ratio. ie. The meat feeds 1/5
as many people as the grain alone would feed. 

M.E. Ensminger, PH.D., recognized worldwide
as an animal agriculture specialist, states: 

“A given quantity of grain eaten directly will feed 5 times as
many people as it will if it is first fed to livestock and then is
eaten indirectly by humans in the form of livestock products”. See: 

http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/reports/beyond.html#5

He also states: "If fertilizers, partial irrigation [provided in part
by oil energy and pesticides were withdrawn, corn yields, for
example, would drop from some 130 bushels per acre
to approximately 30 bushels.". See: 
http://dieoff.com/page185.htm

Growing Unavailability Of By-Products Of Oil

We face increasing costs and decreasing availability of thousands
of known uses of oil, including: Fertilisers (global food supply),
medicines, plastics, asphalt, inks, paints, glues, 
solvents, antiseptics, etc.

Walter Youngquist, Consulting Geologist, states:

"Most people have no idea of the tremendous number of common
items produced from crude oil. Many people associate gasoline or
diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products
that are used everyday. The items produced from crude oil are
astounding and number in the thousands. Scientists have
identified at least 500,000 different uses of oil. The
most vital of all uses is to make the chemicals which
are the basis for modern agriculture.."  .  See: 
http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/

Other Serious Quality-Of-Life Aspects 

In cold regions oil is the fuel of choice to heat buildings
(burned as fuel in homes or in oil-fired electric power stations). 

In hot areas oil power provides air conditioning. As
natural gas is substituted for oil, the price of gas will rise.

Smog will increase as energy price and shortages cause an
increase reliance on coal/wood burning stoves in homes.
Increased coal/wood smoke will add to city smog and
cause related health problems. (Build a Solar Cooker.)

Why Warnings To The Public Are Non-Existent

(a) Oil companies and oil producing countries depend on
shareholder confidence to get loans for exploration.

It has been in their interest to keep quiet about the
exhaustion of the world's oil reserves. 

(b) False reporting of reserves:

There is clear evidence that the seven major oil
producing countries have, for years, reported unchanged
reserves (even though they were extracting and selling
billions of barrels of oil, and that the reserves would
therefore be less each year).  ie. In 1988, five of those
countries suddenly claimed they each had about twice
as much reserve oil as they claimed to have in 1987. See: 

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif

(c) OPEC countries depends on income from exports and need to
earn as much oil revenue as possible to support rapidly growing
populations where the public health care, education and other
services are traditionally provided free, from oil revenues,
rather than from taxes. 

(d) The Gulf states, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in particular,
suffer from a combination of high expectations, rapid population
growth and falling oil revenues; a potentially explosive combination.
In the 1970s, the rapid inflow of oil wealth led all the Gulf states to
create extensive welfare systems. Governments provided health care, education, and other services for free to all citizens, and any citizen
with an advanced degree was entitled to a lucrative government job.
However, since the early 80's the price of oil has fallen dramatically;
with disastrous results for the budgets of regional governments.  See: 

http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/1999/issue3/jv3n3a3.html

See the graph with respect to 
"Misleading Reporting Of Oil Reserves" 

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif 

HELP PREVENT A 
SOCIETAL CATASTROPHE

Reduce energy dependence of family, home, lifestyle and workplace.
The less fuels and goods you consume, the less the impacts will be.
Work on it with friends, workmates, neighbours, etc.  Ideally,
remaining oil and mineral reserves should be directed for
use in industries that will be able to create sustainable
energy equipment such as windmills, solar water
heaters, solar water pumps and technology
that will be able to use biomass
to create fuel, electricity, etc.

SHARE YOUR FEELINGS

Stay positive and active. Don't ignore the situation. Where
there's life there's hope; especially if we collaborate and
choose to be creative. Otherwise, authoritative
references tell us that humanity faces a
dieoff of unprecented proportions. See: 

http://www.dieoff.org

WE MUST ACT NOW

POSSIBLE SURVIVAL PLANS

- Alert the world so people will accept 
 preparations  for the oil shortages and will 
 participate in finding and implementing solutions.

- Get food production going nearer to cities.

- Get work nearer to homes or homes nearer to workplaces.

- Prepare for conserving and rationing of oil & other  resources.

! POPULATION CONTROL !

- Beef up police forces to deal with likely social chaos 
 and to control distribution of vital supplies.

- Demand that national leaders immediately confront the crisis.

TEMPORARY SOLUTIONS

There might be temporary solutions for the coming crisis;
however, they will only postpone the day of reckoning if
the basic problem remains unaddressed:

FINITE RESOURCES
vs
POPULATION GROWTH

All must help to promote a wider awareness of the situation.

Alas, while the majority aid, abet, fund, support or otherwise
assist societies that participate in plans and preparations
that are predicated on a sure and certain will and capacity to
commit Mass Murder, there is no possibility that humanity
will survive *The End Of Oil* and the wars that will be fought
as the will of eternal evil, guiding the grab of greed, causes fools
to use Nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder to secure a bit
more oil to fuel the means by which they might cling to power.

The idea that individuals can escape the consequences of
the catastrophe through retiring to a rural community
and practicing organic farming is an illusion.

All such islands of sanity will be overrun by armed hordes
from the cities if / when organized policing and the normal
distribution of food / medicine / societal services break down.

SURVIVAL PLANS

Anything less than an all-out *survival of humanity* effort will
lead to the use of ALL nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder.

Such plans should include:

(a)  Ban The Use Of Personal Cars.

(b)  Reserve the majority of oil use for petro-chemical base stock.

(c)  Zero Population Growth

An effective"ZPG" policy WILL include *No-Births* years.

Failure to develop such a policy will lead to over-population
and the sight of hundreds of millions slowly starving to death
despite the best efforts of all others who will not, regardless of
their intent, be able to assist distant neighbors and others due to
the painful realities that will attend our lack of oil as a readily
available fuel source for relief vehicles. (If we manage to
produce sufficient food, absent oil for nitrogen fertilizers.)

(d)  Develop effective means of public transport without
reliance on oil as the primary energy source.

In such regard we may have to turn to "Humanure" as a 
source of methane to produce fuels for public transport.

(e)  Develop  "Dignity Plans”

Such plans must lead everyone commit to sharing whatever
food and resources they have, whatever  the consequences,
throughout the coming crisis in order that Humanity, if it
survives the *End Of Oil*, possess a new understanding
of the meaning of its birth as a sentient species with an
ability to reason and plan its future as opposed to
waiting on the forces of *Natural Evolution*.

WHY DO WE NOW FACE DISASTER?

In the early sixties the writer wrote his belief that the majority
of humanity, refusing to recognize that no one should expect to
continue on the road to an insane end without finally arriving at
that destination, would most likely heed the will of evil and succumb
to demands that they support plans and preparations that mocked
the meaning and significance of their births as human beings. 

Due to the depth of that silly and cowardly surrender by millions
to the unlawful demands of the fools who support the will of
eternal evil, most will have great difficulty facing the reality
of the oncoming crisis. Indeed, some believe that the majority,
as pathetic sheep, will develop little desire to take part
in an action plan by which more than the predicted 10%
of the present day population level might survive.

Please note that there are many who are
attempting to develop a means by which
we may increase our chances of survival
past the coming disaster.  Ted Trainer
is one such person:

See Ted Trainer's Thoughts On Possible Solutions:

http://www.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/01-TSW-Intro.html

IF WE FAIL TO ACT IMMEDIATELY

All plans are doomed to failure if we fail to act immediately
and scream our concerns to all leaders that they address the
mindsets that made weapons of mass murder possible and to
then, should WE succeed in such efforts, publicize OUR views
by which humanity can deal with “The End Of Oil” and leave a
better and more habitable earth for those of our children who
will survive and bear the mantle MANKIND with pride;  or
shame, if we should, once again, fail to act in accordance with
our RIGHT and DUTY to refuse to think and act as beings
who are less than fully developed “Humans”.

THE MEANING OF HUMAN DIGNITY

With or without "The End Of Oil", everyone faces death.

However, whether we choose to live with meaningful purpose,
with a determination to leave the world in better shape than
when we were born, is a question all should address.

May that which saw us step out
of the void guide our thoughts.

To a safer, saner and more caring world. 

To Duty

What is one’s duty, when acknowledging a threat
That would destroy all beauty, 
Even steal childrens’ breath?

Does therein lie evil, in avoiding a way
That forces the matter, that builds to a day
When humanity shatters greed’s guilty ways?

Copyright. February 21, 1988  Daniel J. Lavigne

********************

As we approach a worldwide acknowledgement that

"The End Of Oil" is at hand, no one should presume

that "Common Sense" shall prevail.

The opposite is true and has proven so at each and

every point in history when conflicts for available

food, resources or sustainable living space led the

sons and daughters of fools to murder each other

by the millions when "ordered" to do so.

If the world at large fails to understand and act on the need for a moral correction, it shall suffer the use of all Nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder as the needs of greed causes the majority to do whatever they can do, regardless the costs or consequences to any
other, in order that their unsustainable lifestyles be somehow sustained despite the reality that the whole of humanity is subject to the finite limits of all resources on this small planet.

Some Practical Survival Tips

For information on using Solar Cook-Boxes, stills and
home-made water purification devices, go to:
  http://www.exoticblades.com/tamara/sol_cook/types.html
  http://www.rvsolar4u.com/prod10.html
  http://www.homepower.com/

-To Duty-

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