Breaking news about the reality of 'Peak Oil' and its ramifications:
Proceedings of the Standing Senate Committee on
Energy, the Environment and Natural Resources
Issue 13 - Evidence - November 24, 2009
Senator Lang: Your study is predicated basically on our trade with and demand from the United States because that is our major selling partner. We are starting to read more on the question of exactly what is available. How much is available we develop?
Where does your company stand with respect to the fact that some projections indicate that we have peaked, especially at the current price? Where does that put us?
Ms. Dybwad: Senator Angus pointed out that I have a PhD in resource development planning, but I am principally an economist. Allow me to give you the economist's answer. We will never run out because the price will continue to go up until a point where it becomes too painful. At that point, we will find another substitute for oil.
(Unasked / unanswered question:
'What, specifically, is that substitute?')
As you are aware, Canada has the second largest reserves of oil in the world after Saudi Arabia. Will we run out any time soon? No, but the price of oil will continue to go up as demand goes up.
(Unasked / unanswered question:
'What, specifically, will meet that demand?')
How fast and at what level? That is a guessing game that everyone gets involved with. Every now and then somebody throws a dart and gets it right. That is in hindsight more than anything.
I do not know where the price will go and when we finally get to the breakpoint where the pain associated with the price of a barrel of oil is too high. Some people would have thought it was at $140 a barrel, but that was barely a blip.
In terms of overall reserves, the price will continue to increase and reserves will continue to be brought online.
(Unasked / unanswered question: 'What sort, specifically, of 'reserves' are you suggesting?')
Are we past the point of all the cheap stuff? Yes. All of the oil reserves we have now are harder to get at. It is also heavier, under a lot of water and more sour; in other words, it has more sulphur in it. This is not light sweet crude any more. Very little of that is left in the world. Everything else is simply more expensive to access.
There are wild varying estimates in terms of how much shale oil exists in the Bakken Formation. If people think that the oil sands produce dirty oil, shale oil is worse. It is simply a question of how badly you want it and what you are willing to pay for it.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/SEN/Committee/402/enrg/13eva-e.htm?comm_id=5&Language=E&Parl=40&Ses=2
Now, all of the crap from the above Senate exchange aside, here is the reality of the 'Peak Oil' scenario, and the nature of our near future:
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The facts about the growing lack of energy sufficient to maintain our way of life. This page was first published in 1997/98 :
COMING OIL CRISIS // FACT & FIGHT SHEET
Serious Concerns Facing Humanity Within Ten Years Due ToThe Anticipated (2007) Peak Of Conventional Oil Production
Oil extraction will, by 2008, start to diminish by 3% per year; that growing lack of oil, compounded by a present 2% yearly increase in demand, will lead to the collapse of all oil based economies. The duration of the decline is FOREVER. See address by Dr. Campbell to British House of Commons 07/07/99 at:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/commons.htm
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Added this 3rd Day of September, 2010:
http://www.culturechange.org/cms/content/view/674/1/
Wherein Dmitry Orlov, in a Culture Change article, poses this statement: "Peak Oil Is History".
Well worth reading, its adds to our understanding of where we are, and what we must do if we are to survive the collapse of our ability to supply oil sufficient to maintain our presently unsustainable way of life.
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Most Significant Effects
Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for food production, food delivery and all industrial machinery. Restrictions on agriculture (modern food production depends heavily on fertilisers made from oil) will lead to a need for the majority to supplement whatever food they may be able to purchase.
Alternative Fuels Have Been Studied
As replacements for oil they are grossly inadequate.
In quantity and versatility of use, "alternative fuels" will not be able to supply the energy needed to grow our food. And they certainly will not permit us to continue our current belief that "Sustainable Growth" is possible.
Worse, we have 'Run Out Of Time' and will not be able to prevent adverse impacts.
When And How Bad Will The Crisis Be?
Signs are now evident that oil recovery may have already peaked as predicted by M. King Hubbert in 1956. Some believe that the peak will be evident by 2005. See International Energy Agency tables at:
http://208.240.253.224/campbell.htm
[From Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, at end of 1999.] Each has worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years.The Confirming Figures Supplied by E.I.A. can be found at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/
Colin Campbell is completing his Ph.D. in geology at the University of Oxford; he worked for Texaco as an exploration geologist and then at Amoco as chief geologist for Ecuador. His decade-long study of global oil-production trends has led to two books and numerous papers. He also worked on behalf of Petroconsultants of Geneva, a consultancy whose database is the most comprehensive available for data on oil resources that exist outside of continental North America. It is used as a 'bible' by international oil companies.
Laherrère's early work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of Africa's largest oil field. At Total, a French oil company, he supervised exploration techniques worldwide.
“Invest More Money To Find More Oil!”
No amount of money will create oil that simply isn't there. After a century of exploration, the earth's geology and oil resources are generally well known. When the fields are emptying, money only helps to scrape out the hard-to-reach remainder.
There are approximately 210 billion barrels left to discover and approximately 1000 billion barrels left to extract. This is indicated by the 40 year decline in discovery of oil. See:
http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/04discoverandprodn.html
"Technology will solve our problem!"
Challenge to technology: By 2005/2008, create & install a supply of portable energy, equivalent to 660 million barrels of oil a year, increasing that much every year, or manage to reduce energy demand by an equivalent amount each and every year.
The madness of greed denies us such a resolution.
Solar and wind power possibilities
Global solar use: Presently about 0.006% of global energy supply.
Global wind power use: About 0.07% of 1990 global energy supply.
Using some of the remaining oil as fuel for manufacturing solar & wind equipment would be a wiser investment than using it “NOW” in order that to-day’s vehicle manufacturers be able to profit from desires by some to drive to their corner store and buy a six-pack and a pizza without exercising their right to trim the flab from their bodies.
The *End Of Oil* Will Affect Everyone
Food production & delivery depends on oil. Food grains now contain between 4 and 10 calories of fossil fuel for every 1 calorie of solar energy. Four percent of US energy budget is used to grow food. Ten to thirteen percent of it is used to put food on our plates.
Oil shortages will make production increasingly expensive. Moving food production closer to city consumers will be vital.
Percentage of US grain used to feed cattle:
70% of all of America’s grains are used to feed cattle with a very poor efficiency ratio. ie. The meat feeds 1/5 as many people as the grain alone would feed.
M.E. Ensminger, PH.D., recognized worldwide as an animal agriculture specialist, states:
“A given quantity of grain eaten directly will feed 5 times as many people as it will if it is first fed to livestock and then is eaten indirectly by humans in the form of livestock products”. See:
http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/reports/beyond.html#5
He also states: "If fertilizers, partial irrigation [provided in part by oil energy and pesticides were withdrawn, corn yields, for example, would drop from some 130 bushels per acre to approximately 30 bushels.". See: http://dieoff.com/page185.htm
Growing Unavailability Of By-Products Of Oil
We face increasing costs and decreasing availability of thousands of known uses of oil, including: Fertilisers (global food supply), medicines, plastics, asphalt, inks, paints, glues, solvents, antiseptics, etc.
Walter Youngquist, Consulting Geologist, states:
"Most people have no idea of the tremendous number of common items produced from crude oil. Many people associate gasoline or diesel fuel with crude oil, but not the huge number of products that are used everyday. The items produced from crude oil are astounding and number in the thousands. Scientists have identified at least 500,000 different uses of oil. The most vital of all uses is to make the chemicals which are the basis for modern agriculture..". See: http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/
Other Serious Quality-Of-Life Aspects
In cold regions oil is the fuel of choice to heat buildings (burned as fuel in homes or in oil-fired electric power stations).
In hot areas oil power provides air conditioning. As natural gas is substituted for oil, the price of gas will rise.
Smog will increase as energy price and shortages cause an increase reliance on coal/wood burning stoves in homes. Increased coal/wood smoke will add to city smog and cause related health problems. (Build a Solar Cooker.)
Why Warnings To The Public Are Non-Existent
(a) Oil companies and oil producing countries depend on shareholder confidence to get loans for exploration. It has been in their interest to keep quiet about the exhaustion of the world's oil reserves.
(b) False reporting of reserves:
There is clear evidence that the seven major oil producing countries have, for years, reported unchanged reserves (even though they were extracting and selling billions of barrels of oil, and that the reserves would therefore be less each year). ie. In 1988, five of those countries suddenly claimed they each had about twice as much reserve oil as they claimed to have in 1987. See:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif
(c) OPEC countries depends on income from exports and need to earn as much oil revenue as possible to support rapidly growing populations where the public health care, education and other services are traditionally provided free, from oil revenues, rather than from taxes.
(d) The Gulf states, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in particular, suffer from a combination of high expectations, rapid population growth and falling oil revenues; a potentially explosive combination. In the 1970s, the rapid inflow of oil wealth led all the Gulf states to create extensive welfare systems. Governments provided health care, education, and other services for free to all citizens, and any citizen with an advanced degree was entitled to a lucrative government job. However, since the early 80's the price of oil has fallen dramatically; with disastrous results for the budgets of regional governments. See:
http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/1999/issue3/jv3n3a3.html
See the graph with respect to "Misleading Reporting Of Oil Reserves" :
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/campbell/images/com12.gif
HELP PREVENT A SOCIETAL CATASTROPHE
Reduce energy dependence of family, home, lifestyle and workplace. The less fuels and goods you consume, the less the impacts will be. Work on it with friends, workmates, neighbours, etc.
Ideally, remaining oil and mineral reserves should be directed for use in industries that will be able to create sustainable energy equipment such as windmills, solar water heaters, solar water pumps and technology that will be able to use biomass to create fuel, electricity, etc.
SHARE YOUR FEELINGS
Stay positive and active. Don't ignore the situation. Where there's life there's hope; especially if we collaborate and choose to be creative. Otherwise, authoritative references tell us that humanity faces a dieoff of unprecented proportions. See:
WE MUST ACT NOW
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POSSIBLE SURVIVAL PLANS
- Alert the world so people will accept preparations for the oil shortages and will participate in finding and implementing solutions.
- Get food production going nearer to cities.
- Get work nearer to homes or homes nearer to workplaces.
- Prepare for conserving and rationing of oil & other resources.
! POPULATION CONTROL !
- Beef up police forces to deal with likely social chaos and to control distribution of vital supplies.
- Demand that national leaders immediately confront the crisis.
TEMPORARY SOLUTIONS
There might be temporary solutions for the coming crisis. However, they will only postpone the day of reckoning if the basic problem remains unaddressed:
FINITE RESOURCES vs POPULATION GROWTH
All must help to promote a wider awareness of the situation.
Alas, while the majority aid, abet, fund, support or otherwise assist societies that participate in plans and preparations that are predicated on a sure and certain will and capacity to commit Mass Murder, there is no possibility that humanity will survive *The End Of Oil* and the wars that will be fought as the will of eternal evil, guiding the grab of greed, causes fools to use Nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder to secure a bit more oil to fuel the means by which they might cling to power.
The idea that individuals can escape the consequences of the catastrophe through retiring to a rural community and practicing organic farming is an illusion.
All such islands of sanity will be overrun by armed hordes from the cities if / when organized policing and the normal distribution of food / medicine / societal services break down.
SURVIVAL PLANS
Anything less than an all-out *survival of humanity* effort will lead to the use of ALL nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder.
Such plans should include:
(a) Ban The Use Of Personal Cars.
Added this 19th day of May 2010:
Please access:
http://www.StopYourEngines.com
(b) Reserve the majority of oil use for petro-chemical base stock.
(c) Zero Population Growth
An effective"ZPG" policy WILL include *No-Births* years.
Failure to develop such a policy will lead to over-population and the sight of hundreds of millions slowly starving to death despite the best efforts of all others who will not, regardless of their intent, be able to assist distant neighbors and others due to the painful realities that will attend our lack of oil as a readily available fuel source for relief vehicles. (If we manage to produce sufficient food, absent oil for nitrogen fertilizers.)
(d) Develop effective means of public transport
We must develop systems of public transport that will function without reliance on oil as the primary energy source. In such regard we may have to turn to "Humanure" as a source of methane to produce fuels for public transport.
(e) Develop "Dignity Plans”
Such plans must lead everyone commit to sharing whatever food and resources they have, whatever the consequences, throughout the coming crisis in order that Humanity, if it survives the *End Of Oil*, possess a new understanding of the meaning of its birth as a sentient species with an ability to reason and plan its future as opposed to waiting on the forces of *Natural Evolution*.
WHY DO WE NOW FACE DISASTER?
In the early sixties the writer wrote his belief that the majority of humanity, refusing to recognize that no one should expect to continue on the road to an insane end without finally arriving at that destination, would most likely heed the will of evil and succumb to demands that they support plans and preparations that mocked the meaning and significance of their births as human beings.
Due to the depth of that silly and cowardly surrender by millions to the unlawful demands of the fools who support the will of eternal evil, most will have great difficulty facing the reality of the oncoming crisis. Indeed, some believe that the majority, as pathetic sheep, will develop little desire to take part in an action plan by which more than the predicted 10% of the present day population level might survive.
Please note that there are many who are attempting to develop a means by which we may increase our chances of survival past the coming disaster. Ted Trainer is one such person:
See Ted Trainer's Thoughts On Possible Solutions:
http://www.arts.unsw.edu.au/tsw/01-TSW-Intro.html
IF WE FAIL TO ACT IMMEDIATELY
All plans are doomed to failure if we fail to act immediately and scream our concerns to all leaders that they address the mindsets that made weapons of mass murder possible and to then, should WE succeed in such efforts, publicize our views by which humanity can deal with “The End Of Oil” and leave a better and more habitable earth for those of our children who will survive and bear the mantle MANKIND with pride; or shame, if we should, once again, fail to act in accordance with our RIGHT and DUTY to refuse to think and act as beings who are less than fully developed “Humans”.
THE MEANING OF HUMAN DIGNITY
With or without "The End Of Oil", everyone faces death. However, whether we choose to live with meaningful purpose, with a determination to leave the world in better shape than when we were born, is a question all should address.
May that which saw us step out of the void guide our thoughts.
To a safer, saner and more caring world.
To Duty
What is one’s duty, when acknowledging a threat
That would destroy all beauty,
Even steal childrens’ breath?
Does therein lie evil, in avoiding a way
That forces the matter, that builds to a day
When humanity shatters greed’s guilty ways?
Copyright. February 21, 1988 Daniel J. Lavigne
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As we approach a worldwide acknowledgement that"The End Of Oil" is at hand, no one should presume that"Common Sense" shall prevail.
The opposite is true and has proven so at each and every point in historywhen conflicts for available food, resources or sustainable living space led the sons and daughters of fools to murder each other by the millions when 'ordered' to do so.
If the world at large fails to understand and act on the need for a moral correction, it shall suffer the use of all Nuclear and other Weapons Of Mass Murder as the needs of greed causes the majority to do whatever they can do, regardless the costs or consequences to any other, in order that their unsustainable lifestyles be somehow sustained despite the reality that the whole of humanity is subject to the finite limits of all resources on this small planet.
Some Practical Survival Tips
For information on using Solar Cook-Boxes, stills and home-made water purification devices, go to:
http://www.exoticblades.com/tamara/sol_cook/types.html
http://www.rvsolar4u.com/prod10.htmlhttp://www.homepower.com/
-To Duty-
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